Why are they trying to recall Lima Mayor Susana Villarán?
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Why are they trying to recall Lima Mayor Susana Villarán?
Mayor Susana Villarán (Norma Córdova/Andina)
By Nick Rosen
February 6, 2013
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In five weeks, Lima’s mayor, Susana Villarán, will
probably be recalled. The polls show that if the recall election was
held today, 60% of residents would vote to have Villarán removed from
office. By all indications, it will be difficult for Villarán to make up
the difference in time for the March 17th, vote.
As we near the vote, however, there’s one question that has been
asked repeatedly, by our readers and by many other observers. They have
asked, “Why are they trying to recall Villarán?”
There’s no satisfying answer to that question. There’s no scandal (in
contrast to past mayoral administrations). There’s no revolt against an
unpopular policy (indeed, the reform of the public transit system, the
centerpiece of Villarán administration, enjoys wide popularity).
Villarán’s critics say that her administration has been inefficient, but
the figures do not clearly back up that allegation. There’s no issue,
per se, to debate.
Last week, Hildebrandt en sus trece published a report from a
couple of neighborhoods in Lima Norte and Lima Este, hotbeds of support
for the recall. Voters explained why they wanted Villarán out of
office. Some cited friends or family members who worked as drivers or cobradores
on combis and who feared they would lose their jobs or have to pay
hefty traffic tickets because of the transportation reforms. Others had
lost the opportunity to work when Villarán restricted where vendors
could sell their wares in the center of Lima and shut down the market at
La Parada. Some mentioned that Villarán had not built anything in their
particular neighborhood. There was no single, overarching explanation,
but a series of particular or hyper-local issues.
Some analysts have pointed to a socioeconomic and cultural
explanation for Villarán’s poor reception among Lima’s least-wealthy
residents. Villarán, even as a left-leaning politician, represents the
city’s élite, and she has had trouble connecting with the many Limeños
who live in the working-class neighborhoods ringing the city.
I think there is a simpler explanation for why Villarán is unpopular,
however: she never was popular. She won her position in 2010 by
emerging late from a crowded, divided field of candidates and claimed
just 39% of the vote. That is the same percentage, according to the
polls, that would vote to keep her in office today. The composition of
her base of support has changed, but the numbers have not.
Villarán’s case is not exceptional. These days, the majority of
Peruvian politicians enjoy popularity similar to Villarán’s. You will
find many mayors and regional presidents polling at 15%, 25% or 30%
approval ratings. The approval ratings enjoyed by Humala now (53%, after
spending most of the past 12 months in the low-40s) and Luis Castañeda
during his term as mayor are exceptions, not the norm. For a number of
reasons, including the incredible weakness of political parties here,
Peruvian politicians rarely enjoy a solid base of support, and most
would be susceptible to a recall campaign like the one targeting
Villarán.
So the answer as to why they are trying to recall Villarán is as
simple as it is unsatisfying. They are going to recall her because they
can. There are people who have a financial or political interest in
seeing Villarán gone, and they have provided the financial and
organizing muscle needed to run the campaign. They see this as a worthy
investment of their time and resources because in Lima, just as in
almost everywhere else in Peru, it is easy to find the 50%-plus-one of
the voters needed to kick a politician out of office. If this works— and
it probably will— expect to see it repeated elsewhere around the
country in the years to come.
